afghanistan security situation 2020

 

enhancing security and stability in Afghanistan, a current and anticipated threat assessment, and a description and assessment of the size, structure, strategy, budget, and financing of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces. Taliban militants launch attacks on government personnel, security forces, and civilians in Afghanistan on a near-daily basis. WORKSHOP. ecoi.net's featured topics offer an overview on selected issues. Note: For information on the security situation and socio-economic situation in Herat-City and Mazar-e Sharif please refer to the following link: Rival political figures are contesting the result of the election. In June, President Ghani announced plans to subsume the Afghan Local Police into other branches of the security forces provided individuals can present a record free of allegations of corruption and human rights abuses. Numbers are, according to the NYT, incomplete as many local officials do not confirm casualty information.] The most agonizing fact is the worsening of the security situation in Afghanistan despite the US -Taliban agreement, followed by the intra-Afghan talks in February 2020. Show all. Several days later, the Taliban confirmed his death and announced the selection of one of his deputies, Haibatullah Akhunzadeh, as the new Taliban leader. The UNAMA report on civilian casualties for the first quarter of 2021 provides the following chart on civilian casualties: “The increase in civilian casualties compared with the first quarter of 2020 was mainly driven by the same trends that caused the increase of civilian casualties in the last quarter of last year – ground engagements, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and targeted killings all continued to have an extreme impact on civilians during this year’s comparatively warm winter. Indeed, it has often seemed that the war was the only activity unaffected by Covid-19. The first week of Al-Fath saw the highest level of security incidents in two years. He gives moral, religious and political statements, oversees judges, courts, and political commissions, assigns shadow governors and is in command of the military organization.” (Landinfo, 13 May 2016, p. 4)[xii], “By the start of the 2019 fighting season, which was announced on 12 April under the name ‘Al-Fath’ or ‘Victory’ the political backdrop had changed. In the post-Taliban period, HIG has been ideologically and politically allied with the Taliban insurgents, but HIG fighters sometimes clash with the Taliban over control of territory in HIG’s main centers of activity in provinces to the north and east of Kabul. HIG is not widely considered a major factor on the Afghanistan battlefield and has focused primarily on high-profile attacks […].” (CRS, 6 June 2016, p. 22), “The peace deal signed today by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, leader of Hezb-e Islami, and President Ashraf Ghani, has been hailed by the Afghan government as the first major peace achievement of the last fifteen years. UNAMA stressed that while the figures represent a 13 percent decrease compared to the first half of 2019, there was no reduction in civilian casualties attributed to the Taliban and the Afghan national security forces. The southern, followed by the eastern and northern regions, recorded the highest number of security incidents. The total number of civilians killed or injured [160 killed and 243 injured] by ISIS attacks in Afghanistan in 2020 is 403; while the total number of civilians killed or injured by ISIS in Afghanistan in 2019 was 515. Ousted individuals were reportedly removed owing to complaints from rank and file Taliban concerning deficiencies in logistical and financial support.” (UN Security Council, 30 May 2018, p. 5), “Since the post-2014 U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan, there is little sign that the Taliban’s firepower has waned, or that the group is suffering from battle fatigue. The risk for violence around political events and rallies remains. https://www.ecoi.net/en/countries/afghanistan/featured-topics/general-security-situation-in-afghanistan-and-events-in-kabul/. Established trends of incident types remained unchanged, with armed clashes accounting for 63.6 per cent of all incidents. […] The group apparently has turned increasingly to kidnapping to perhaps earn funds and publicize its significance.” (CRS, 19 May 2017, p. 20). Members of the security forces committed numerous abuses.” (USDOS, 30 March 2021, executive summary), “As of January 28, 2021, CSTC-A [Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan] reported 307,947 ANDSF [Afghan National Defence and Security Forces] personnel (186,859 MOD [Ministry of Defense] and 121,088 MOI Ministry of Interior]) biometrically enrolled and eligible for pay in APPS. At the same time, an unprecedented ceasefire in 2018 and subsequent negotiation efforts have illuminated the possibility of peace. https://www.ecoi.net/en/countries/afghanistan/featured-topics/security-situation-and-socio-economic-situation-in-herat-city-and-mazar-e-sharif/, https://www.ecoi.net/en/document/2001546.html, UN Security Council, 1 February 2019, p. 7, https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war-and-peace/hit-from-many-sides-1-unpicking-the-recent-victory-against-the-iskp-in-nangrahar/, https://www.ecoi.net/de/dokument/2036111.html, https://www.ecoi.net/de/dokument/2039860.html, https://www.ecoi.net/de/dokument/2039863.html, https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2001546/Afghanistan_Versorgungslage+und+Sicherheitslage_2010+bis+2018.pdf, https://www.ecoi.net/en/document/2048577.html, https://www.aihrc.org.af/home/thematic-reports/9057, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/weakened-isil-sectarian-agenda-exacts-heavy-toll-afghanistan-200401060725810.html, https://www.ecoi.net/de/dokument/2035906.html, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-47005558, https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL30588.pdf, https://www.dw.com/en/afghanistan-halts-taliban-prisoner-release-stalls-peace-talks/a-54602409, https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/03/northern-afghan-district-falls-to-the-taliban.php, https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/are-taliban-serious-about-peace-negotiations, https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2036300/311-taking-stock-of-taliban-perspectives.pdf, https://www.ecoi.net/local_link/320838/446328_en.html, https://www.ecoi.net/de/dokument/1428951.html, https://www.ecoi.net/en/document/1435560.html, https://www.ecoi.net/en/document/1435576.html, https://www.ecoi.net/en/document/1440615.html, https://www.khaama.com/1-killed-another-wounded-in-a-magnetic-bomb-explosion-in-kabul-city-03494/, https://www.ecoi.net/file_upload/1788_1463253776_taliban.pdf, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/07/world/asia/afghan-war-casualties-january-2021.html, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/world/asia/afghan-war-casualty-report-april-2021.html, http://www.ecoi.net/local_link/330273/457942_en.html, https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2029668/2020-04-30qr.pdf, https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2040661/2020-10-30qr.pdf, https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2045009/2021-01-30qr.pdf, https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2050829/2021-04-30qr.pdf, https://www.ecoi.net/en/document/1431611.html, http://www.ecoi.net/file_upload/1226_1439195705_unama-protection-of-civilians-in-armed-conflict-midyear-report-2015-final-5-august-new.pdf, https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2019223/unama_protection_of_civilians_in_armed_conflict_-_3rd_quarter_update_2019.pdf, https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2034915/unama_poc_midyear_report_2020_-_27_july-revised_10_august.pdf, https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2046014/afghanistan_protection_of_civilians_report_2020.pdf, https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2049780/unama_protection_of_civilians_in_armed_conflict_1st_quarter_2021_2.pdf, https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/1435757/1226_1529480518_n1816567.pdf, https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2048484/A_75_811_E.pdf, https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2002892/S_2019_103_E.pdf, https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/1435051/1226_1528897591_n1813039.pdf, https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2010658/S_2019_481_E.pdf, https://www.ecoi.net/en/document/1445040.html, https://www.ecoi.net/en/document/2048097.html, ACCORD – Austrian Centre for Country of Origin and Asylum Research and Documentation, 2.1. The UNSC regularly publishes reports about their international missions and worldwide developments concerning politics, security, human rights etc. In addition, there was no agreement by the parties to reduce violence in the first three months of 2021, which could have had a significant positive impact on civilians, as the reduction in violence week had in February 2020.” (UNAMA, April 2021, p. 1), “Anti-Government Elements continued to be responsible for the majority, 61 per cent, of all civilian casualties in the first three months of 2021, while Pro-Government Forces continued to cause approximately one quarter (27 per cent) of the total civilian casualties. HQN is integrated into the larger Afghan Taliban and cooperates with other terrorist organizations operating in the region, including al-Qa’ida and Lashkar e-Tayyiba. Pro-government forces and its international allies: There has been 16 percent reduction in number of civilian casualties caused by pro-government and its international ally forces. The agreement also obligates the Taliban to commence peace negotiations with the Afghan government and other Afghan power-brokers. [xvii] FDD’s (Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Long War Journal is a Washington, DC-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy (FDD, About FDD). German language translations/summaries of these quotations are available when you switch to ecoi.net’s German language interface. Focus on Kabul City, Mazar-e Sharif and Herat City (August 2020). The cited NYT Afghan War Casualty Report includes all significant security incidents confirmed by New York Times reporters. Taliban militants now control more territory than at any time since the U.S.-led coalition drove the group out of Kabul in 2001. Afghan officials put the number of Al Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan at 300- 500.” (CRS, 19 May 2017, p. 17), “An Islamic State affiliate—Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP, often also referred to as Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan, ISIL-K), named after an area that once included parts of what is now Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan—has been active in Afghanistan since mid-2014.” (CRS, 19 May 2017, p. 20), “IS formally launched its Afghanistan operations on January 10, 2015, when Pakistani and Afghan militants pledged their allegiance to its so-called caliphate in Syria and Iraq[…]. For a general introduction to the security situation in Afghanistan, reference is made to the EASO report listed above, published in June 2019. They comprise the largest protracted refugee population in Asia, and the second largest refugee population in the world. EASO COUNTRY OF ORIGIN INFORMATION REPORT: AFGHANISTAN - SECURITY SITUATION 2.26.3 Recent security trends and impact on the civilian population .....235 2.27 Paktya .....238 These figures show a 21 percent decrease in the number of civilian casualties. In February 2020 the U.S. and the Taliban signed an agreement that paved the way for the first direct talks between the Taliban and representatives of the Afghan republic since 2001. Afghan security forces have been bearing the actual brunt of the situation, while the people in general are becoming the victim of overflow of violence in different parts of the country. […] [T]he day after the agreement was signed, Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani said his government could not honour terms it had not been present to negotiate.” (ICG, 11 August 2020, p.1), “Negotiations for the US and Taliban had agreed that 5,000 Taliban prisoners would be released before they entered talks with the Afghan government. This may lead to non-English language content being quoted. […] The organisation could regroup when the pressure on them subsides, but it seems it would need a long time for it to revive its networks, if indeed that is possible.” (AAN, 1 March 2020), “Last December, Afghan and US forces claimed to have meted out a humiliating defeat to ISKP in Nangarhar, its main stronghold in the war-torn country. Another 174 civilians have been harmed due to Pakistani rocket fires in Afghanistan which includes 31 killed and 143 injured.” (AIHRC, 28 January 2021), “From 1 January to 31 December 2020, UNAMA documented 8,820 civilian casualties (3,035 killed and 5,785 injured), a 15 per cent reduction from the number of civilian casualties recorded in 2019 and the lowest number of civilian casualties since 2013.” (UNAMA, February 2021, p. 11). The group was driven out of their last remaining bases in Nangrahar at the end of last year. Policy Department, Directorate -General for External Policies. They include those who identify as ‘Taliban’ as well as individuals and non-State organised armed groups taking a direct part in hostilities and assuming a variety of labels including the Haqqani Network, Hezb-e-Islami, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Islamic Jihad Union, Lashkari Tayyiba, Jaysh Muhammed, groups identified as ‘Daesh’ and other militia and armed groups pursuing political, ideological or economic objectives including armed criminal groups directly engaged in hostile acts on behalf of a party to the conflict.” (UNAMA, August 2015, p. 2, Footnote 5), “Terrorist and insurgent groups exploit Afghanistan’s ungoverned spaces, including the border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Afghan War Casualty Report only includes security incidents confirmed by New York Times reporters across Afghanistan. Yet whatever the record of individual units, dissolving the force is bound to have repercussions for security. On 28 September 2020, the European Asylum Support Office (EASO) published a Country of Origin Information (COI) report titled ‘Afghanistan, Security Situation’The EASO COI report Afghanistan: Security Situation (2020 update) aims to provide information on the security situation in Afghanistan, which is relevant for the assessment of international protection status determination, including refugee status and subsidiary protection.The security situation in Afghanistan remained volatile during the reference period (1 March 2019 – 30 June 2020), while the conflict continued to be described as one of the deadliest in the world for civilians. The US-Taleban agreement and planned intra-Afghan talks have so far brought few benefits to Afghan civilians overall, although probably more to those living in Taleban-held areas and in cities who have been spared, respectively, night raids and US airstrikes, and fewer large-scale urban attacks.” (AAN, 16 August 2020)[vi], “For civilians living deep in areas of Taleban control living without the threat of air strikes, large scale ground operations or night raids, life has taken on a normality many have not known for years; In areas under government control, aside from the decreased likelihood of being caught up in large-scale terrorist attacks, the risk is much the same as it was prior to the signing of the Doha agreement; For people living in contested areas, the defensive posture of the ANSF (Afghan National Security Forces) means Taleban attacks against ANSF positions have become more frequent, as are indiscriminate responses by the ANSF; the risk for civilians of being caught in the crossfire has increased;” (AAN, 28 October 2020), “On November 17, Acting Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller announced another reduction in U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan, from the 4,000–5,000 reached in November [2020], to 2,500 as of January 15, 2021.” (SIGAR, 30 January 2021, p. 47), “Peace negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban continued this quarter [October – December 2020] amid sustained high levels of insurgent and extremist violence in Afghanistan.” (SIGAR, 30 January 2021, p. 47), “According to findings by AIHRC, a total of 8,500 civilians have been killed or injured throughout 2020; among whom 2,958 were killed, and 5,542 injured. |, Publications in relation with the Financial Regulation, Asylum trends 2019 - EASO Asylum Report 2020, The EASO COI report Afghanistan: Security Situation (2020 update), third largest country of origin of refugees in the world, EASO COI Report: Afghanistan - Criminal Law, customary justice and informal dispute resolution (July 2020), EASO COI Report: Afghanistan - State Structure and Security Forces (August 2020), EASO COI Report: Afghanistan - Anti-Government Elements (August 2020), EASO COI Report: Afghanistan - Key socio-economic indicators. “Strength: HQN [Haqqani Network] is believed to have several hundred core members, but it is estimated that the organization is able to draw upon a pool of upwards of 10,000 fighters. ISIL suffered a severe setback in northern Afghanistan during the reporting period. In addition, the report was reviewed by Germany, Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF); Slovakia, Migration Office, Department of Documentation and Foreign Cooperation; and by ACCORD, the Austrian Centre for Country of Origin and Asylum Research and Documentation.With 2.7 million refugees as of the end of 2019, Afghanistan was the third largest country of origin of refugees in the world. In fact, extensive talks had already taken place in early 2019 between the Taliban and the United States of America. […] No groups or individuals have taken responsibility for 2,107 civilian casualties (857 killed, and 1,250 injured) perpetrated in Afghanistan in 2020. [iv] The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) is a political UN mission established on 28 March 2002 by United Nations Security Council Resolution 1401. The National Directorate of Security functions as an intelligence agency and has responsibility for investigating criminal cases concerning national security. This featured topic offers an overview on the general security situation. (NYT, 31 December 2020)[viii], “The United Nations recorded 7,138 security-related incidents between 13 November and 11 February, a 46.7 per cent increase compared with the same period in 2020 and contrasting with traditionally lower numbers during the winter season. FDD reports news on the global war on terror and is rated “right-center biased on aligning with Neo-Conservative positions regarding the war on terror” by Media Bias/Fact Check (Media Bias/Fact Check, undated). The Government of National Unity (GNU) struggled to assert control over this remote terrain, where the population is largely detached from national institutions.” (USDOS, 1 November 2019), “The insurgency is still led primarily by the Taliban movement. The faction received extensive U.S. support against the Soviet Union, but turned against its mujahedin colleagues after the Communist government fell in 1992. Intra- Afghan talks aimed at achieving such a settlement began in September 2020, representing a major step toward resolving the conflict. ecoi.net is run by the Austrian Red Cross (department ACCORD) in cooperation with Informationsverbund Asyl & Migration. Of further concern is the worrying increases in civilian harm from tactics which exacerbated the environment of fear and paralysed many parts of society.” (UNAMA, February 2021, p. 11), “From 1 January to 31 December 2020, UNAMA attributed 62 per cent of all civilian casualties to AntiGovernment Elements, with 45 per cent attributed to the Taliban, eight per cent to ISIL-KP, and nine per cent to undetermined Anti-Government Elements. Location/Area of Operation: HQN is active along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and across much of southeastern Afghanistan, particularly in Loya Paktia, and has repeatedly targeted Kabul in its attacks. Also, thus far in 2020, the conflict has continued unabated, despite the coronavirus pandemic and the peace process. Indeed, the sequencing of peace efforts – beginning with bilateral commitments between the U.S. and Taliban, then moving to intra-Afghan talks that might end the war – allowed the insurgent movement to participate in the process without making significant concessions and with their leverage enhanced by those the U.S. made.” (ICG, 11 August 2020, p. 2), (FDD’s Long War Journal, 28 March 2020)[xvii]. The cited NYT Afghan War Casualty Report includes all significant security incidents confirmed by New York Times reporters. The other reports of the series can be found at following links:•    EASO COI Report: Afghanistan - Criminal Law, customary justice and informal dispute resolution (July 2020) •    EASO COI Report: Afghanistan - State Structure and Security Forces (August 2020) •    EASO COI Report: Afghanistan - Anti-Government Elements (August 2020) •    EASO COI Report: Afghanistan - Key socio-economic indicators. Afghanistan is undergoing a major transition in terms of politics, economy and security. Islamic State’s Khorasan Province (ISIS-K), elements of al-Qa’ida, and terrorist groups targeting Pakistan, such as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), continued to use the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region as a safe haven. [viii] The New York Times (NYT) is a US Daily Newspaper based in New York City. Since then, IS-Khorasan has proved itself to be one of group’s most brutal iterations, attacking soft targets, targeting Shia populations, killing Sufis and destroying shrines, as well as beheading its own dissidents, kidnapping their children and marrying off their widows. Civilian authorities generally maintained control over the security forces, although security forces occasionally acted independently. [xiv] The Jamestown Foundation (JF) is a Washington, D.C.-based information platform providing media and monitoring reports aimed at informing and educating policy makers and the broader policy community about events and trends in societies that are strategically or tactically important to the United States and in which public access to such information is often restricted. ], “Three governmental entities share responsibility for law enforcement and maintenance of order in the country: the Ministry of Interior, the Ministry of Defense, and the National Directorate of Security. In March, the Security Council is scheduled to hold its quarterly meeting on Afghanistan. For information on the security situation in Afghanistan during the period from January 2010 to September 2018, see the following report: ACCORD: Afghanistan: Entwicklung der wirtschaftlichen Situation, der Versorgungs- und Sicherheitslage in Herat, Mazar-e Sharif (Provinz Balkh) und Kabul 2010-2018, 7 December 2018 However, in late 2015 U.S. Special Operations forces and their ANDSF partners discovered and destroyed a large Al Qaeda training camp in Qandahar Province—a discovery that indicated that Al Qaeda had expanded its presence in Afghanistan. From November 2019 to March 2020, the number of people experiencing crisis and emergency levels of food insecurity is expected to rise to 14.3 million people compared to 12.6 million in the previous period, based on Flowminder 2020 population projections. “Another significant insurgent leader is former mujahedin party leader Gulbuddin Hikmatyar , who leads Hizb-e-Islami – Gulbuddin (HIG). Funding and External Aid: In addition to the funding it receives as part of the broader Afghan Taliban, HQN receives much of its funds from donors in Pakistan and the Gulf, as well as through criminal activities such as kidnapping, extortion, smuggling, and other licit and illicit business ventures.” (USDOS, 19 September 2018), “From 2001 until 2015, Al Qaeda was considered by U.S. officials to have only a minimal presence (fewer than 100) in Afghanistan itself, operating mostly as a facilitator for insurgent groups and mainly in the northeast. […] Only last week, a traditional council reached an agreement to release a final 400 prisoners. 2.2. Afghanistan: Acute Food Insecurity Situation March - May 2021 and Projection for June - November 2021; 01.08.2020 > 30.10.2020 Afghanistan: Acute Food Insecurity Situation August - October 2020 and Projection for November 2020 - March 2021; 01.08.2019 > 31.03.2020 The Major Crimes Task Force, also under the Ministry of Interior, investigates major crimes including government corruption, human trafficking, and criminal organizations. Those regions collectively accounted for 68.9 per cent of all recorded incidents, with Helmand, Kandahar, Nangarhar and Balkh Provinces recording most incidents. In April 2016, U.S. commanders publicly raised their estimates of Al Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan to 100-300, and said that relations between Al Qaeda and the Taliban are increasingly close. [ix] The UN General Assembly (UNGA) is one of the six principal organs of the United Nations and the only one in which all member nations have equal representation. Anti-government elements initiated 85.7 per cent of all security-related incidents, including 92.1 per cent of armed clashes. This breakthrough comes after a decade of on-and-off U.S. and other efforts to catalyse a peace process, throughout which observers have questioned the Taliban’s willingness to negotiate a political settlement that will require substantive compromise. The explosion left 13 civilians dead and more than 120 people wounded. [xv] The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) is a British public service broadcaster headquartered in London. ISIS: The data recorded by AIHRC show that the number of civilian casualties due to ISIS attacks decreased by 21 percent in 2020 compared to 2019. While all Afghan parties to the conflict are supported by foreign countries, those doing the killing and those being killed are now almost all Afghan. According to the same interlocutors, the provincial shadow and deputy shadow governors, along with the provincial military commanders, were all replaced in the Provinces of Bamyan, Baghlan, Kabul, Kapisa, Kunar, Laghman, Parwan, Samangan, Takhar and Uruzgan. According to the report, the first half of 2020 witnessed the killing of 1,282 civilians, with 2,176 civilians injured. October. The Taliban’s organisational structure is hierarchical, with an Amir ul – Muminin (Commander of the Faithful) on the top. Suicide bomb kills 21 people in Afghanistan’s Logar province.